First decade of October was marked by a hot discussion of the dollar-tenge, frozen at the level of "273". Social networks are raging, the mass media quotes experts and "folk economists". As for forecasts – one is worse than the other. What is actually happening with the dollar, and what consequences it will entail for businesses and the public? We asked the Chairman of the National Chamber of Entrepreneurs "Atameken" Ablay Myrzakhmetov to answer this question.

- Ablay Isabekovich, recently the Chamber is again in the focus of the media and social networks. At this time in connection with the offer of sale of foreign currency earnings of exporting companies at the domestic market ...

- I note that in the last two weeks, the degree of discussion in the expert community and in the media about the exchange rate policy is extremely intensive. And yesterday's speech of  Mr. Kelimbetov can be regarded as a kind of attempt to reduce this tension. Well, as it is always done in our country, it was done in the "best traditions". Questions, requiring an open and serious discussion with the participation of qualified experts, our dear Kayrat Kelimbetov discusses in the form of a monologue.

The statement of the Vice-Chairman of the Board Yulia Yakupbaeva was taken out of the context of her reply to a reporter's question. It was about her attitude as an expert to the initiative of the adviser of the Russian president - Sergei Glazyev. By the way, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, unequivocally rejected this approach as the one, which doesn’t meet the market economy requirement. Deputy Chairman of NCE agreed that such a mechanism is possible, but stressed that the issue should be discussed with the enterprises-exporters...

- What do you think about this?

- I believe that it is an anachronism. It's a throwback to the old days of the administrative-command management. Such an arrangement is possible, but only in the form of a "gentlemen's agreement" between the banks and exporting companies, without force. And no more than that ... I would not want the statements of individual persons to be taken as a "consolidated view of NCE". This is, at least, incorrect.

- But how do you assess the current situation?

- And how to evaluate it? Consumer demand is falling. Volume of tenge is "compressed." Business activity is reduced in the country. Instead of a coherent and clear position of the National Bank, we see what happens with second-tier banks. They are falsely accused of speculative operations, then they threatened that a "black list" will be published. It is clear that banks are just processing a client’s application. If a client has the money in tenge and is willing to buy foreign currency on the basis of what the bank can refuse it? Especially with a floating exchange rate, the market determines the value of the currency. And what's the point of imposing shadow, spreading the cryptic messages, because in no case it has been proven that the banks buy the currency through nominees. I think that the National Bank's efforts to form a negative public opinion against the banks is a dangerous trend.

- But it is the function of the National Bank to fight inflation ...

- National Bank can, and probably sometimes has to intervene in the process of formation of the market exchange rate of tenge. But my colleague writes Eldar Abdrazakov: the function of the National Bank in the course of formation of market conditions - is to smooth shocks and not to determine the exchange rate.

In this context, continuing the glorious tradition of Olzhas Khudaybergenov, I have two questions to the leadership of the National Bank. If you think 273 tenge per dollar is an adequate rate, is it possible to publish the formula by which the rate is calculated as an adequate? Is it possible to publish the approach, methodology, calculations and lay them on the official website of the National Bank, so that we can overlook how adequately this rate has been defined?

The second thing that we observe. Letting tenge free float, for the second month the official competent authority can’t form a clear stand, to show how this rate will be formed, to give signals to the market. This information is not available. In the face of uncertainty of tenge rate, business can’t plan its activities. We need a clear position of the National Bank.

Business needs signals from the Government. It should be noted that last month, we actively discussed with the economic bloc of the Government the stability of tax and tariff policy. These areas are important for business in the economic downturn. Our voice has been heard, despite some disagreements with the economic departments. The Prime Minister has decided to defer all tax innovations before January 1, 2017, and before March 1, 2016 we have to discuss together all the innovations.

According to tariffs of natural monopolies, there was adopted a key decision in 2016 to raise them only for individual enterprises-monopolists in the range of inflation - by 4-4,5%. This is an important signal to the business, to save the business. All this is the result of a constructive dialogue and compromise.

In addition, the Government has decided: according to the principles of the Yellow page, to exit the competitive sectors of the economy through a large-scale privatization. It is also planned in the social sector (education, health, infrastructure) and to use to the maximum the instruments of PPP. The process of the reforms of the policy of state subsidies to support the competitiveness of enterprises, instead of the principle “all sisters get earrings" has started.

But all the efforts of the Government will not succeed without a clear exchange rate and monetary policy of the National Bank. Until the market gropes the equilibrium state, the holders of foreign currency deposits won’t transfer money in tenge. Meanwhile, the National Bank raised twice the base rate of tenge liquidity to 12%, and just the other day to - 16%.

The benchmark was set for the market: if the banks will borrow money at such rate, the real sector will get them at 20% or more. Well, who in a contraction of consumer demand will get loans at such interest? This is unrealistic. This leads to a serious decrease in banks 'lending to the real sector and, consequently, to a fall in business activity, deterioration of bank loan portfolios, the growth of intercompany debt, stop and bankruptcy of enterprises. The result of all this will be the problem of employment.

Today I saw a statement by the members of the discussion club "Atameken". Understanding the importance of an open and professional discussion of the exchange rate and monetary policy, I support the proposal to hold a discussion with the participation of qualified experts and encourage addresses of this appeal to begin a dialogue.

By the way, recently the deputy chairman of the National Bank Kuat Kozhahmetov said: "Why do the people look at the dollar?" But for business - it is a necessity related to the planning of their activities.